reflectivepundit

2020 and 2024: Trump, his MAGA Crowd, and FOX News

By Brigitte L. Nacos

In 2015, before and after Donald J. Trump declared his presidential candidacy, there were few, if any, so-called experts who gave the New York entrepreneur and TV reality show star a chance.

Like them, I, too, considered his candidacy not more than a public relations stunt to strengthen the Trump brand.

This time around, eight years later, nobody should underestimate the disgraced ex-president’s chances next year. To begin with, he has an excellent chance to become the GOP’s presidential nominee once again, especially, if he has a bunch of primary competitors. Like in 2016, Trump will not need the support of a majority of Republican primary voters in 2024. A plurality will do. And the core MAGA crowd will deliver that.

Even if Ron DeSantis, who as governor of Florida makes great efforts to show Americans his illiberal qualities, and some other presidential hopefuls do not enter the race, Trump remains the favorite to become once again the Republican nominee.

To be sure, much can change in the political climate before and during the primary season. But in spite of a recent burst of news articles and opinion pieces about the alleged fading of Trump’s support among Republican leaders and followers, there are equally compelling signs for his staying power.

I was taken aback by a recent Emerson College poll that found Trump leading DeSantis by 41 percentage points in a hypothetical primary race in New Hampshire with Trump winning 58 percent of the vote and DeSantis merely 17 percent. More surprising was that Chris Sununu, the highly popular governor of New Hampshire, received only 7 percent of the vote—even though he, unlike Maryland’s ex-governor Larry Hogan, has not excluded a presidential run. I found equally stunning that Trump was the preferred candidate of two-thirds of respondents under 35-years old. That was certainly doing away with the assumption that Trump’s support comes primarily from the older generations.  

And then there is the question of what role FOX News might be playing during the primary season and the general campaign.

Based on released documents from the Dominion Voting Systems vs. FOX News defamation lawsuit, Rupert Murdoch and his son Lachlan along with the network’s management and prime time stars were all along in bed with Trump and acted as the president’s propaganda arm.

In exchange, they raked in record advertising profits because they were the media of record for the Trumpian MAGA movement that guaranteed day-in and day-out the highest audience ratings, especially during prime time.

When everyone at FOX knew that Biden won the 2020 election and that there was no man-made or machine-made voting fraud, the network echoed Trump’s and his clique’s BIG LIE relentlessly and gave ample air time to the wacko line-up of Trump’s conspiratorial advisers.

While the old Murdoch claimed last year that his media would not support another Trump campaign, I, for one, do not believe that. Murdoch and his crew will not risk to lose their most lucrative audience: the hard-core MAGA and QAnon members along with other reactionary groupings. And do not forget the removal of all Twitter boundaries since Elon Musk took over that social media platform.

While not writing off the likelihood of President Biden’s reelection in 2024 (or, unlikely, another Democrat’s election), I believe that Donald Trump has by far the best chance to become the GOP nominee and a chance to win the presidency for the second time--contrary to what certain politicians, pundits, and election experts tell us.

GOP House Members Mock America’s Shooting Epidemic

By Brigitte L. Nacos

The first act of the new, albeit slim GOP majority in the US House of Representatives was a telling one: The leadership ordered the removal of metal detectors outside the House chamber that had been put up following the violent breach of Capitol Hill to protect members and staffers from copy-cat violence.

Just as many GOPer were and remain Covid-pandemic deniers, they seem equally untouched by the mass-shooting epidemic that kills increasing numbers of Americans, their own constituents among them.

In a macabre scene, Republican members of the House Natural Resources Committee repealed this week a rule adopted in 2021 by the same committee that prohibited lawmakers from carrying guns in the hearing room. But that was when the Democrats were in control. Several GOP members insisted on their need to defend themselves—and nobody stronger than gun-happy Loren Boebert of Colorado who declared, "With threats against members of Congress at an all-time high, now is not the time to be stripping members of our constitutional right to defend ourselves.”

It seems that guns are not potent enough for Second Amendment fanatics on the Hill.

Why else would several House members, among them disgraced Congressman George Santos, wear AR-15 assault rifle pins at their lapels along with their congressional pins—as they did the other day? This awful pin was a freebee distributed by Georgia Congressman Andrew Clyde who owns a gun store, where he sells those pins.

A sad, promotional coup at a time, when mass shootings in the country occur all too often and many times involve AR-15s or similar assault weapons.

And then there are the grenades that GOP freshman Representative Cory Mills of Florida presented to his new colleagues in what he called the “mission-oriented congress.” In a letter that accompanied the gift, he assured that the grenades were inert and added,  

“I am honored to be a part of the Armed Services and Foreign Affairs Committee. In that spirit, it is my pleasure to give you a 40mm grenade, made for a MK19 grenade launcher. These are manufactured in the Sunshine State and first developed in the Vietnam War.”

What kind of “mission” do GOP members have in mind?

Are the removed metal detectors, the vote against banning guns from hearing rooms, the display of AK-15 rifle pins and the handing out of grenades metaphors for the GOP House majority’s agenda?

If so, 2024 may not bode well for these political performance artists.  

The Different Meanings of “We the People…”

By Brigitte L. Nacos

Violent and peaceful protesters at the right and left often use the slogan “We the People” to link their demands to their understanding of the U.S. Constitution’s promise. Both sides refer to the U.S. Constitution which was written and signed by the Founding Fathers in 1787 and begins with the words “We the People of the United State, in Order to form a more perfect Union….”

On January 6, 2021, many in the violent MAGA crowd considered themselves “We the People” fighting to keep Donald Trump in the White House. “We The People need to be in that building,” screamed a preacher from Ohio into the direction of Capitol police officer who stood behind metal barricades.

Four years earlier, anti-Trump activists organized a “We the People” protest on January 20, 2017, when Donald Trump was sworn in as U.S. President. A poster for the event, created by Shephard Fairey, showed the images of African-American, Latina, und Muslim Women as “a pointed reference to people who have felt attacked” by the president-elect as the artist explained.

While Conservatives tend to insist on the original words and meanings of the Constitution, Liberals tend to insist on interpreting the living Constitution in the context of the more than 200 years since the document was framed.  

So, what did “We the People” mean for the Founding Fathers? Whom did they consider the citizens of the republican form of government?

Since the framers were all White male elitists or, as the political scientist James MacGregor Burns put it, “the well-bred, the well-fed, the well-read, and the well-wed,” they restricted “We the People” to their own kind. Excluded from citizenship with voting rights were

• Slaves,
• Indentured slaves,
• Males without property,

No wonder that contemporary Americans, who resent the multicultural nature of modern America’s population and call for “taking our country back” consider the Framers’ meaning of “We the People” as justifying White Supremacy. And, yes, some of the Far-Right extremists would also like to repeal the voting rights for women. While they embrace and misinterpret the Bill of Rights (especially the First and Second Amendments) that the first U.S. Congress adopted, they reject the bulk of later Amendments that expand the franchise and other rights for formerly excluded groups.

In contrast, Liberals appeal to an inclusionary “We the People” concept achieved by the progress made in the 19^th and 20^th centuries for the benefit of groups excluded by the Framer’s view on citizenship.  

Now, in the 21^st century, hard fought-for rights of women and minorities are under attack from constitutional originalists—among them the majority of Supreme Court Justices.

To be sure, the Founding Fathers did not mention abortion rights in the document they framed. Thus, a 6-3 majority of the Supreme Court overturned last year in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization the Roe v. Wade decision that established the constitutional right to abortion.

Among the major cases to be heard by the highest court during the current session are others with issues not mentioned by the Framers and thus other opportunities for reactionary rulings.   

On the Second Anniversary of January 6th: GOP Anarchists at the Gate

By Brigitte L. Nacos

This day, to years ago, a violent crowd of organized terrorist groups and fanatic MAGA and QAnon supporters of Donald Trump stormed the U.S. Capitol to prevent the certification of Joe Biden’s clear and fair election victory. Among those who sympathize to this day with the violent mob and the White House cabal behind the failed coup to keep Trump in office are many of the current GOP Representatives-elect—those who refuse to vote for Kevin McCarthy to become Speaker of the House and others who support McCarthy.

While most mainstream media reporters and commentators call the anti-McCarthy GOPers “conservative” or “hard-line” Republicans, the truth is that they along with others in the pro-McCarthy crowd are anarchists or, as former GOP Speaker John Boehner once called them, “legislative terrorists.”

Indeed, like all terrorists, these nihilistic anarchists want to destroy the existing order—not improve or reform the political, economic, and social systems.

They do not want sit at the legitimate table of decision-makers. They want to destroy the table without an idea of how to build a better future for the vast majority of the people they claim to represent.

Interestingly, some of the most extreme congressional GOPers who share the disruptive ideas and actions of their anti-McCarthy colleagues chose another path to realize their power-hungry objectives: They opted to support McCarthy in exchange for influential positions in the GOP House majority in form of their desired committee assignments and influence on the leadership strata.

The most visible examples are Jim Jordan, Ohio, and Marjorie Taylor Greene, Georgia, who have been close to Kevin McCarthy since he has struggled to become Speaker.

Jordan, a founding member and first chair of the far-right congressional Freedom Caucus, has been for long a rhetorical bomb thrower and was, according to the Jan. 6^th select committee, a supporter of the coup attempt.

Last year, Taylor Greene was stripped of her committee seats because of her toxic rhetorical attacks and endorsement of violence against Democrats. More recently, she claimed that under her leadership the January 6^th attackers would have won and been armed. But whenever the new congress has a speaker, she will get the committee assignments of her choice.

Add to this McCarthy’s surrender to his GOP opponents by agreeing to all their demands that limits his power drastically and you see that the script for the next two years is written:

Whether the 21 or so members of the anti-McCarthy gang will prevail or not, the anarchist wing of the GOP will hold the balance of power for the next two years in the U.S. House of Representatives and inflict great harm to the legislative imperatives of the lower chamber.

The forces that drove the events before, during, and after January 6, 2021 are still at work and, yes, at the gate of congressional decision-making.

My Future Representative in Washington is a Liar and Crook

By Brigitte L. Nacos

Filling in for Fox News host Tucker Carlson, former Representative and former Democrat Tulsi Gabbard tore into Republican Congressman-elect George Santos for lying during his campaign about his education, job history, religion, and properties. She did not let him get away with the excuse that he merely embellished his resume “a bit”—and that Democrats are far bigger liars. “Do you have no shame?” she scolded him. She mentioned the people who will be represented by Santos in the lower chamber of congress, “If I were one of those in New York’s 3rd District right now, now that the election is over, and I’m finding out all of these lies that you’ve told, not just one little lie or one little embellishment — these are blatant lies…”

I am one of those people in New York’s third congressional district and disgusted that I will be represented by a liar and crook in the U.S. House of Representatives. There is no doubt that Santos will be sworn in on January 3^rd. While I did not vote for Santos but for Democrat Robert Zimmerman, I have no doubt that the GOP candidate won the election in the formerly Democratic but redrawn 3^rd district fair and square. Lies are no crimes. Only pressure from party leaders could perhaps derail Santos’s path to Washington.

But that will not happen.

The GOP House leadership has remained silent since the New York Times revealed details about Santos’s falsified biography. Minority leader Kevin McCarthy wants nothing more than become Speaker of the House and will welcome any member who promises to vote for him.

That’s what Santos has already done. He pledged to vote for McCarthy who has no vote to spare in his struggle with MAGA fanatics in his caucus.

Forget about MAGA Party leaders. They will not stand up for truthfulness, ethics, moral principles--and not for the ideals and ideas of our democracy.

That did not happen, when Donald Trump lied every day as candidate, as president, as ex-president, and now, again, as declared candidate for the 2024 presidential race.

George Santos indicated in interviews that what he calls “embellishing” his biographical information is a common practice among politicians. Everyone does a bit of it, he claimed.

In other words, he calls politicians collectively fellow liars and crooks.

That’s what is the legacy of the Trump years in the GOP.  

After Trump’s Call for the Suspension of the US Constitution…

By Brigitte L. Nacos

It shouldn’t have come as a surprise that former president Donald Trump used his social media platform last weekend to call for the suspension of the U.S. Constitution. He wants to scrap laws and constitutional articles that are the foundation of our democratic system because he still claims falsely that the 2020 presidential election was rigged in favor of the winning candidate.

Obviously, he does not want to wait for voters to decide in November 2024 but rather tries to sell the idea of a second coup to his hardcore supporters. Many of them, most of all the QAnon conspiracists, believe all along that he must and will return to power well before the next elections.

Although Mike Pence, the former vice-president, and Mitch McConnell, the minority leader in the US Senate, had a few critical words for Trump’s attack on constitutional democracy, the bulk of GOP officials responded once again by remaining silent.

A shocking silence and proof that the power-hungry master of Mar-a-Lago continues to hold his grip on the GOP, if only, because the GOP’s elected officials fear the influence of the MAGA movement in their party’s primaries.

By now it is crystal clear: For the GOP, Trump cannot go too far with even the most extremist words and actions that were unthinkable for presidents or ex-presidents until this performance artist moved into the political arena.

Trump does not hide his hostility to democracy and his preference for strong-man rule. He publicizes his outrageous ideas and acts on them.

More recently, he displayed his preference of far-right extremism in several cases.

• He does not make a secret of his support for the organized terrorists and MAGA insurrectionists who supported his coup attempt on January 6, 2021 (1/6) by an unprecedented violent attack on the US Capitol. And he has promised the convicted 1/6 participants pardons once he returns to power. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Green, a Trump disciple, plans GOP hearings into the Department of Justice’s “unfair” treatment of violent 1/6 offenders once her party takes over in the U.S. House of Representatives.

• He hosted the White Supremacist, neo-Nazi, and Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes and the anti-Semite Kanye West for dinner at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. If that was not a clear message of support to far-right extremists, among them violent ones, what would be? While Trump signaled his support for these elements among his supporters before, his get-together will Fuentes and West was an overt embrace and brought Trump a blast of the media attention he seeks.

Can the Midterm Election Results Derail the Trump Train?

By Brigitte L. Nacos

Although the GOP will likely become the majority party in the House of Representatives and perhaps in the US Senate as well, the results of this week’s midterm election were the first signs of hope that the leader of the MAGA movement is not invincible. That there are limits to contemporary extremism and pure craziness in American politics. That enough Americans have not succumbed to rhetorical and actual political violence.

Of course, hope is not reality. Perhaps signal changes to come.

Donald Trump and his minions were not the only ones to predict a landslide victory for the Republican Party and their hand-picked line-up of far-right candidates. Pollsters and pundits and reporters in the field confirmed the coming shellacking of the Democratic Party and their candidates.

They all were wrong. Again.

Their predictions were far removed from what actually happened and still unfolds in undecided races in three states and two dozen congressional districts.

Democrats won clear victories in a number of swing states, among them Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. And they won against GOP candidates who were so extreme that they were rejected by enough Independents and even some Republicans. The Democrats’ unexpected good showing included gubernatorial victories and majorities in state legislatures matched finally previous sweeps of the GOP in state-wide elections.

If the senatorial races in Arizona and Nevada are ultimately won by the Democratic candidates, the Democrats would remain in the driver's seat in the US Senate because Vice President Harris would break likely 50-50 ties. If the Republicans end up winning the senatorial seats in those two western states, they will be in charge in the upper chamber of the Congress. In either case, a win in the run-off in Georgia on December 6 between the sitting Senator Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, and the Trump-handpicked former football star Hershel Walker would be gravy for either Democrats or Republicans.

Today, the big question is this:  Can this week’s mid-term election results finally derail the Trump MAGA train?  

Rupert Murdoch’s far-right New York Post celebrated Florida Governor Ron DeSantis on the front page of its Wednesday edition calling him “young GOP star” and “DeFuture”—a slap in Donald Trump’s face and plan to announce his third run for the presidency next week. Worse yet, on Thursday, the New York Post’s front page showed “TRUMPTY DUMPTY” and the following verse:

"Don (who couldn’t build a wall)

Had a great fall—

Can all the GOP’s men

Put the party back together again?"

 

Perhaps it does not take “all the GOP’s men” but only some courageous GOP men and women a la Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger to “put the party back together.”

Performance Artist Trump and his Big Helpers in the Mainstream Media

By Brigitte L. Nacos

In the United States of America, the loyal opposition is dead.

Instead of debating political differences with opponents in rational debate that differentiates democracies from autocracies, the leader of the Republican Party continues to up the ante of his usual crude rhetorical insults and degradation.

At a campaign rally in Ohio on the eve of the midterm elections, former President Trump called the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, “an animal.” And, as he has done many times before, he also labeled her “Crazy Nancy.”  

Shortly after the attack on Paul Pelosi, the former and would-be next president Trump contributed to instantly circulating right-extreme conspiracy theories, according to which the assault on the 82-year old husband of the Speaker was staged by the liberal cabal or the result of a gay relationship gone bad—all contrary to the police version supported by video footage of the break-in.

Trump did not condemn the attacker’s political violence; probably, because the perpetrator’s posts revealed the same violent far-right extremism that is at home in the MAGA cult and the community of QAnon conspiracy theorists—both Trump’s staunchest supporters.

The Big Lie about the 2020 presidential election is merely one big whopper among the ex-president's daily spoken and written lies.

Lies or not, the ex-president consumes more mainstream media news oxygen than most other politicians—on many days more than the sitting president.

The legacy news media, involved in sharp competition with each other and social media platforms, attract the largest audiences to their political reporting, when their infotainment stars unorthodox political performance artists—like Donald Trump. That’s appreciated by news organizations’ managements and stock owners. After all, higher audience ratings rake in higher profits.  

The key to Trump’s nomination and election victories in 2016 was not FOX News, the army of Far-Right radio hosts, his tweets, or his rallies during which he preached anger, hate, division, and—yes—violence. Instead, Trump’s biggest helpers during the decisive pre-primary and primary seasons were mainstream media organizations. The huge volume of coverage devoted to his rude speech during his performances and the attention to outrageous tweets he or his team posted gave him unprecedented free propaganda that was not available to his opponents.

After Trump announces his next presidential candidacy, we will get an idea whether the mainstream media will repeat their mistakes of Donald Trump’s first presidential run.

I am not optimistic that a self-correction is in the cards.

Violent Speech begets Violent Deeds

By Brigitte L. Nacos

If you watched the horrific scenes of the Jan. 6 breach of the Capitol by organized militia groups, enraged members of the MAGA movement, and delusional QAnon conspiracy cultists, you must have heard their bloodthirsty screams, “Na-a-a-n-cy, Na-a-n-cy” as they searched for the Speaker of the House. Had they gotten hold of her… If there was any doubt about her fate, the perpetrator told the police his kidnapping and torture plans. He left plenty of evidence of his Far-Right violent extremist views and his belief in bizarre QAnon conspiracy theory propaganda.

Nancy Pelosi has been demonized by GOP right wing extremists for many years. And she was high on Donald Trump’s and supporters’ list of vilified women. The leader of the Oath Keepers, now tried for seditious conspiracy, threatened to hang her on a lamp post. She surely was the supreme target of their vile rhetorical attacks because the line-up of powerful men can’t stand women in influential positions. Pelosi has received more death threats than any other member of Congress. But she is far from the only one in the two congressional chambers. Instead, the number of such threats against public officials in all branches and on all levels of government, federal, state, and local, have catapulted to unprecedented levels.

 

Number of Serious Threats against Members of Congress:

2016:      902

2017:   3,939

2018:   5,206

2019:   6,955

2020:   8,613

2021:   9,600

If you take a look at the numbers above about the dramatic increase in threats against Congress members, you see that the significant increase began in the first year of Trump’s presidency and did not end with the changing of the guards in Washington because the former president has not changed his tune.

How did we get to this unprecedented political hate and division, this hyper political polarization?

My take is that there are strong correlations between the hate speech that Donald Trump brought into the political discourse and the huge rise of political threats against public office holders. What in the past was the hate speech of fringe figures and groups, has become normal political discourse that is either practiced or condoned by silence in the highest circles of the once normal GOP.  

Violent speech begets violent deeds. And political violence begets more political violence.

I hope, the next weeks and months prove me wrong.

Stopping Arms Sales to Saudi Arabia Is Not Enough

By Brigitte L. Nacos

After stopping at a gas station to fill up my car this morning I knew that the next refill would cost still more than what I paid today. But I also thought about what Washington decisionmakers, President Biden and the Congress, should do in reaction to Saudi Arabia’s and Russia’s decision to cut OPEC’s oil output and thereby hurt US-led efforts to bring the harmful inflation under control and prevent a deep recession.  

US Senator Tim Murphy (D-Conn.) suggested on ABC News, “we” should “rethink” arms sales to Saudi Arabia, following the kingdom’s support for Russia in the war against Ukraine.” Others agreed with the curtailment of military shipments to the kingdom. But even if this would happen, it would not be enough and no recipe to secure enough oil and gas for the West in the near future.

I agree with Tom Friedman’s who wrote the other day in his New York Times column,

"Putin and Saudi de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman are also probably hoping that the soaring energy inflation unleashed since Russia’s invasion helps the Donald Trump-led Republicans to regain control of at least the House of Representatives in next month’s elections. That would be icing on the cake for both, who view Trump as a president who still loves black crude over green solar and knows how to look the other way when bad things happen to good people."

It is not cynical at all to conclude that M.B.S. (Mohammed bin Salman) and Vladimir Putin are pushing their unholy agenda in support of a socio-economic crisis as the best scenario in view of the 2024 presidential election—regardless of whether the former president or one of his clones runs under the Trump movement banner.

It is high time for Joe Biden and his administration to look for new sources of oil and gas that the West needs for the foreseeable future. Both Saudi Arabia and Russia are led by despotic men and both countries are known for horrific human rights violations. Yet, that did not limit their energy sales to western democracies.

So, why not look to countries that could pump more oil and sell it to the West, especially Europe?

I am glad that the White House thinks along these lines now.  According to the Wall Street Journal, the Biden administration “is preparing to scale down sanctions on Venezuela’s authoritarian regime to allow Chevron Corp. to resume pumping oil there…” Yes, Venezuela, too, has a record of human rights violations, but have they been worse than those in Russia and Saudi Arabia?

Perhaps, Washington should go a step further and resume—along with the EU—negotiations with Saudi Arabia’s arch enemy Iran. About the nuclear agreement that Trump withdrew from and about loosening some sanctions in return for oil exports to the West. I know, this is a very unpopular idea in view of dissident protesters being killed and maimed by the regime.  

But, again, human rights violations have never stopped the sale of gas and oil to the United States and Europe. That can only occur when we speed-up the establishment of renewable energy sources and become energy self-sufficient.