reflectivepundit

Strongman al-Assad is Gone. What Now?

By Brigitte L. Nacos

During the last decade, the al-Qaeda related al-Nusra Front was in Syria a minor player in comparison to what was for several years the far larger ISIS organization. Like anyone else following the news, I was surprised by the rapid fall of Syria’s strongman Bashar al-Assad last weekend. I was far more surprised by the leading role that al-Nusra’s successor group Hayat Tahir al-Sham (HTS) played in the rebellion against Assad.

What now? HTS is among those entities that are designated terrorist organizations in the U.S., the United Kingdom, and other Western countries. HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani is among Washington’s most wanted terrorists with a $10 Mill. reward for information that would lead his arrest.

HTS and al-Jolani seem in control of Damascus, other big cities, and a big chunk of Syrian real estate. According to their Telegram channel and in public declarations they try to keep enough of the institutions of government working so that the country does not suffer the same fate as others after the fall of their authoritarian rulers. Just think what happened in Iraq and in Libya after the fall of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi—endless civil wars between a multitude of factions.

For several years now, al-Jolani has denounced al-Qaeda’s global terrorist agenda and instead embraced the liberation of Syria from the strongman Assad rule as his and his group’s only objective. Today, in Damascus, he dropped his nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Jolani and reclaimed his real name Ahmed al-Shara—I suppose to signal his change from terrorist to a now celebrated freedom fighter.

Whether one believes that this man has changed or not, he is now perhaps the most important player in efforts to prevent another horrific consequence in the wake of another strongman’s fall from power. To that end, I understand why London, Paris, and Washington are considering the removal of HTS from their lists of terrorist organizations which would facilitate diplomatic contacts with the new power holder in Damascus.

Initially, at least, there are signs of a swift cooperation between the victorious rebels and high officials of the al-Assad government. The first goal is to establish and maintain order and security. The HTS leader has asked bureaucrats and police to return to work.

Making progress domestically will depend also on the role of former government officials and all kinds of professionals who are now returning from abroad ready to join in the rebuilding of a stable state and one in which the rights of ethnic and religious minorities are assured.

It will be difficult for Ahmed al-Shara to keep the various groups involved in the rebellion united.

What neighboring countries and the international community of nations can and will do and what the fall of strongman Assad means for the new geopolitical realities in the Middle East and the rest of the world, poses another set of questions without definitive answers.

After Biden Pardoned his Son Critics Go Bananas

By Brigitte L. Nacos

President Joe Biden said repeatedly that he would not pardon his son Hunter. At a time, when America’s democracy was under sustained attack by the incoming president and the far-right cast he has selected for key positions in his administration, Biden’s promise spoke to his respect for democratic institutions, including the system of justice.  

Biden changed his mind. Last weekend, he granted his son a total pardon for a more than 10-year period. That same weekend, president-elect Trump nominated his son-in-law’s father, Charles Kushner, to serve as ambassador to France. In 2020, Trump pardoned Charles Kushner, a convicted felon; at the same time, a bunch of criminally convicted Trump associates were pardoned as well. More recently, Trump promised repeatedly that he would pardon the “political prisoners” convicted for violent crimes during the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol “on day one” of his second term as president.

Although Trump used his constitutional pardon power excessively, critics claim that Biden’s pardon of his son Hunter makes it more likely that Trump will expand this veto power even further in his second term. Nonsense. Trump does not need a precedent. He makes his extreme rules as he goes along.  

While there was no outcry against Trump’s nomination of a family member with a criminal record for a top ambassadorship, Trump himself, many Republicans and Democrats, plus plenty of media commentators went bananas after the news broke that Biden pardoned his son.

“Biden was dishonest,” “Biden lied,” were common headlines and comments in the news. The chorus of critics grew and became louder every day. Where was and is the same outrage, the same anger, when Donald Trump lies day-in and day-out? Whereas being dishonest is mostly ignored when it applies to Trump, Biden is held to a higher standard for this one lie even by those who accept and embrace their Dear Leader’s perennial aversion to truth.

According to Biden’s critics, the president’s claim that Hunter was prosecuted because he was his son, is in tune with Trump’s hostility against the justice system that the former president considers part of “the deep state.” But unlike Trump during his presidency, President Biden did not interfere with judicial decisions—and not with the prosecutions of his son who was found guilty of tax evasion and falsely filling out an application form for his gun permit during a time, when he was an alcohol- and drug addict.  

A good guess is that the real reason for Biden’s turnaround on pardoning Hunter was the nomination of Kash Patel for the position of FBI director. Patel, like his idol Trump, has been tireless in pledging retribution for the alleged but not real persecution of President Trump by the FBI and the Department of Justice. The Bidens are on top of the MAGA reprisal list followed by many other leading Democrats, “disloyal” former members of the Trump administration, and critical media personalities.

What parents would not use their legal power to protect their son from a future power holder who has threatened a “bloodbath,” when talking about the existential fight against the “enemy within” and the public execution of his most evil enemies?