By Brigitte L. Nacos
In 2015, before and after Donald J. Trump declared his presidential candidacy, there were few, if any, so-called experts who gave the New York entrepreneur and TV reality show star a chance.
Like them, I, too, considered his candidacy not more than a public relations stunt to strengthen the Trump brand.
This time around, eight years later, nobody should underestimate the disgraced ex-president’s chances next year. To begin with, he has an excellent chance to become the GOP’s presidential nominee once again, especially, if he has a bunch of primary competitors. Like in 2016, Trump will not need the support of a majority of Republican primary voters in 2024. A plurality will do. And the core MAGA crowd will deliver that.
Even if Ron DeSantis, who as governor of Florida makes great efforts to show Americans his illiberal qualities, and some other presidential hopefuls do not enter the race, Trump remains the favorite to become once again the Republican nominee.
To be sure, much can change in the political climate before and during the primary season. But in spite of a recent burst of news articles and opinion pieces about the alleged fading of Trump’s support among Republican leaders and followers, there are equally compelling signs for his staying power.
I was taken aback by a recent Emerson College poll that found Trump leading DeSantis by 41 percentage points in a hypothetical primary race in New Hampshire with Trump winning 58 percent of the vote and DeSantis merely 17 percent. More surprising was that Chris Sununu, the highly popular governor of New Hampshire, received only 7 percent of the vote—even though he, unlike Maryland’s ex-governor Larry Hogan, has not excluded a presidential run. I found equally stunning that Trump was the preferred candidate of two-thirds of respondents under 35-years old. That was certainly doing away with the assumption that Trump’s support comes primarily from the older generations.
And then there is the question of what role FOX News might be playing during the primary season and the general campaign.
Based on released documents from the Dominion Voting Systems vs. FOX News defamation lawsuit, Rupert Murdoch and his son Lachlan along with the network’s management and prime time stars were all along in bed with Trump and acted as the president’s propaganda arm.
In exchange, they raked in record advertising profits because they were the media of record for the Trumpian MAGA movement that guaranteed day-in and day-out the highest audience ratings, especially during prime time.
When everyone at FOX knew that Biden won the 2020 election and that there was no man-made or machine-made voting fraud, the network echoed Trump’s and his clique’s BIG LIE relentlessly and gave ample air time to the wacko line-up of Trump’s conspiratorial advisers.
While the old Murdoch claimed last year that his media would not support another Trump campaign, I, for one, do not believe that. Murdoch and his crew will not risk to lose their most lucrative audience: the hard-core MAGA and QAnon members along with other reactionary groupings. And do not forget the removal of all Twitter boundaries since Elon Musk took over that social media platform.
While not writing off the likelihood of President Biden’s reelection in 2024 (or, unlikely, another Democrat’s election), I believe that Donald Trump has by far the best chance to become the GOP nominee and a chance to win the presidency for the second time--contrary to what certain politicians, pundits, and election experts tell us.
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