By Brigitte L. Nacos
As the Ukrainian military and civil defense units fight the invading Russian military effectively, Vladimir Putin’s decision to place his military’s nuclear forces on high alert heightens the threat of his use of nuclear weapons in the Ukrainian theater of war—and perhaps beyond. In this critical situation, all efforts must be made to find a peaceful solution. And the best person to enlist for what seems a mission impossible is in my view Germany’s ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel, She speaks Russian fluently und knows Putin better than any other Western politician. Her ability to reason like the trained scientist she is would be a good basis of discussions with the usually rational but more recently highly emotional Russian leader.
The unity displayed by NATO and EU and allies in other parts of the globe in their swift opposition to Russia’s war against Ukraine must have come as an unprecedented shock to Putin. The Russian president must have underestimated how effective President Biden’s repair of the U.S.-European relationship has been. He reversed his predecessor’s efforts to destroy NATO as we know it and weaken the EU and thereby strengthened Western democracies so that they now can resist Russian expansionism forcefully without direct participation in the military hostilities.
Two weeks into this war, the Ukrainian military and civilian Territorial Defense Forces have stalled Russia’s plan to occupy its neighbor. The unprecedented sanctions against Russia have isolated the country cutting it mostly off the global markets. This has already resulted in hardship for the Russian public.
As Thomas Friedman writes in today’s New York Times, “Russia has no good way out [of this war]…” And that is the problem. Not only for Putin but for the Western alliance against him. Strongman do not want to accept defeat, cannot accept a loss. That’s bad enough, as we learned following the 2020 presidential election in the U.S., in a country in which the institutions of government still work as supposed. But in an autocracy with a sole ruler on top there are no built-in restrains. Thus, the danger of Putin’s end game that may include the deployment to weapons of mass destruction.
The frequent and long phone conversations between Putin and various Western leaders are signs that there may be room for actual negotiations. But that would need a most skilled negotiator.
Ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel would be the best possible choice!
The goal must be to find a solution that guarantees Ukraine’s independence but at the same time offers Putin a way out with the ability of justifying the war and its end result as something positive to his people
Biden and Putin are on different planets; former Kanzler Schroeder's visit with Putin is a joke. I think that a European leader--or former leader like Merkel--has to make another effort.
But it looks as if no one can change Putin's mind.
Posted by: Brigitte Nacos | March 11, 2022 at 08:14 AM
Yes, she knows Putin well. There is a photo op of her shaking his hand in 2017 - post Crimean invasion. She certainly has the mettle to reach Putin, though, reports say that he has changed in ther last two years. He is consumed with his legacy that is a renewal of the FSU. Europe has returned to realpolitik; the U.S. never left. A strong leader is needed to manage the Russia file through diplomacy. Xi is not the one. Merkel is not. Tsai Ing-wen could be...though, she is facing a belligerent PLA. So, Mr. Biden is up to the challenge?
Posted by: Kevin K | March 11, 2022 at 07:28 AM