By Brigitte L. Nacos
Because the popular uprisings in several Arab autocracies and the fall of the regimes in Egypt and Tunisia occurred without any part by Al Qaeda or like-minded Jihadis, some experts on the Middle East and terrorism have suggested that the recent developments cast Osama bin Laden, his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri, and whatever else is left of Al Qaeda Central in the roles of irrelevant bystanders.
To be sure, Al Qaeda’s hallmark—a lethal mix of religious fanaticism and indiscriminate violence—was and is not the driving force in the protest movements sweeping the Arab world.Indeed, the contrast between non-violent protesters and violent government reactions was instrumental in the demise of the regimes and Egypt and Tunisia.
But it is far too early to presume that Al Qaeda and its unholy mission are obsolete in the region and beyond.
In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood may well emerge as the most influential group in the government of the future and shed the mantle of non-violence that it adopted in response to brutal oppression.
In Yemen, with President Ali Abdullah Saleh trying to hold on to power, the influential cleric Sheikh Abdul Majid al-Zindani called for the establishment of an Islamic state. It is noteworthy that Al-Zindani was once bin Laden’s mentor and that Yemen today is home to the most activist Al Qaeda branch. Were his former mentor to succeed, this would certainly bolster bin Laden’s objectives in the Arabian Peninsula--although enemy number one remains the house of Saud in neighboring Saudi Arabia.
To free this particular region from its governments and their American and Western allies—the “occupiers” and “Crusaders”--was from the outset Osama bin Laden’s primary objective as well documented in his 1996 fatwa.
For Al Qaeda’s second in command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who was tortured in Egyptian prisons for his oppositional activities years ago, the fall of Hosni Mubarak is not enough. Nor is the demise of the Tunisian regime of Ben Ali.
In one of several message within the last couple of weeks, al-Zawahiri urged Tunisians to ignore the “wishes of the French invaders” and “to install Sharia Law” as an example for Muslims elsewhere.
As for Egypt, he knocked the post-Mubarak “transitional government” wondering “where it will be located - in Cairo or in Vienna or in New York?”
In either case, he assured Egyptians and Tunisians, "You should know that we are to go a long way to liberate our Ummah from crusaders and their stooges"
The point here is that nobody knows what the future will bring in these two countries and in Libya, Yemen, and other countries in the region. Or whether secular or religious forces will dominate or whether they embrace something along the lines of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s model.
For now, suggestions of Al Qaeda’s irrelevance are premature.
As are plans for the imprisonment of bin Laden and/or al-Zawahiri. According to CIA director Leon Panetta, Washington figures that the most likely place for their imprisonment would be the military prison at Guantanamo Bay.
The problem is that nearly 10 years after 9/11 and 10 years into the war in Afghanistan the once foremost objective of the Afghan enterprise is still not achieved.
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