by David Epstein and Sharyn O'Halloran
In a vote as placid as Monday's House vote was stormy, the Senate just passed a slightly revised bailout bill by a comfortable 3-to-1 margin. Perhaps the administration has scared enough senators into believing that there's a true crisis; if so, it worked.
The vote analysis is much less interesting this time around too. No defections from the wings, no stunning defeat of major legislation, etc. There was a slight partisan tilt, as before -- 80% of Dems voted in favor, as compared with 70% of Reps. Also, electoral factors played a role -- those with close races were more likely to vote against, as compared with those not up for reelection or with safe leads.
So, if anyone has any more hypotheses about what went on, and the data to test it, we'd be happy to run the numbers. The real question is whether the House will take this up again on Friday, and to what result.
Update: We added foreclosure data to the analysis and, to our surprise, it significantly predicts vote choice: the more foreclosures, the less likely it was that a senator would vote for the bailout. Interesting...
Comments