Clinton Will Soon Have the Lead in the Race

by David Epstein

There's an article making the rounds in Politico claiming that, in fact, the race is already over, and only Hillary's pull with the national press (oh really?) is stopping them from stating the obvious. Add this to similar pieces in Slate and the NYT, and we have a small boomlet of journalists trying to make it seem like the race is essentially over.

But as these articles point out, these calculations depend on completely ignoring the results in Michigan and Florida, which seems absurd. In Florida, both candidates had their names on the ballot. In Michigan, Clinton, Kucinich, Dodd and Gravel were on the ballot, Obama, Edwards, Richardson and Biden were off the ballot. So putting all the "uncommitted" votes in Obama's column is certainly giving him more than he deserves, but so be it.

With these two states added in, Obama's total vote lead shrinks from 700,000 to about 70,000. So it's likely that Clinton will take the total vote lead after the Pennsylvania primary. Then it would be up to Obama to explain why the fact that the delegate apportionment formulas give him more delegates than Clinton should override the majority vote so far in the primary season. After all, we usually associate democracy with a system where the candidate with more votes wins, so how would having the convention select Clinton be "overturning" the primaries?

No, the votes in Florida and Michigan were not perfect, and redoing them would be the best solution possible. But if that doesn't happen, we are left only with a series of imperfect measures of the candidates' popularity. None is ideal, but is it really better to throw the states out entirely? It seems that after Pennsylvania Obama's claim to front-runner status will be entirely tied up in this point of view, which is tenuous, to say the least.

Comments

[Pennsylvanian]

EXCELLENT ANALYSIS! All I see in Pittsburgh is all Clinton all the time. She is working very hard and is very well received. The Wright debacle will stick to him ummmm...like
white on rice, so to speak.

His disasterous follow up to his speech snidely calling Grannie a "typical white person" who fears strangers and has reactions that were "bred" into her is so ghastly it is no wonder he left for an island! The man knows what to say to placate everyone...I'm pro-Israel (pay no attn to my church's reprinting of Hamas propaganda), I never heard the "controversial" statements, though I don't think my church is controversial. Everybody is racist, especially Grandma and Geraldine Ferraro.

Somebody tell this clown to go back to the South Side of Chicago...oh, I forgot, he lives in a million dollar mansion that Rezko helped him buy. Yup, life has been really tough on poor Barry and his very unproud wife.

[jack mcclasky]

Look Florida and Michigan voters take a civics lesson and learn how to vote. Your leaders knew the rules set by the DNC. Your lost votes land squarely in your lap. Lets drop this absolutely disingenuous disenfrachised voter argument.

Please let us not have 08 go to another "hanging chads" Please florida learn how to use your voting machines!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Try to take some responsibilty for your actions

[SB]

Right on Rosa spicer...same goes in California.
Democratic hispanics, women and seniors will also vote republican if Obama wins.

[rosa spicer]

I am a Floridian and I can tell you I am hostile towards our governor and the Democratic party. I have sent notice to the DNC that i will not renew my membership if my vote is not counted and I have it on good authority I am not the only person who feels that way. I will be writing Hillary Clinton in which is my right, if she is not
our nominee and so will most of the Democrats of Florida. For the record, Hussein did not stand a snowballs chance in h--- of defeating Hillary Clinton and if the truth be known she would probably be getting John Edwards votes here too. Take a good look at the figures she beat Obama brutally and trounced McCain's figures by over 200,000. She turned a red state blue and brought democrats out of the woodwork, to vote for her even knowing that we were not going to count. The democrats in Florida will not vote for Hussein and that is a fact. We are seniors and hispanics, do the math gentlemen. It adds up to Hillary Clinton for president. The DNC sure has pissed off 2 million democrats who came out to vote. I would also like to thank Bill Nelson who has tried to get our votes to count and he is the only Democrat that I will vote for outside of Hillary. You are probably not going to see 16 years of a democrat in the presidency because of your stubborn stupidity. Disenfranchising us again was not a smart move to make because the democrats in Florida will probably never come out again for another Democrat.

[A.D.]

BOTTOM LINE: As a Michigan voter, I can speak for myself and a plurality of others like me when I say that I DID NOT vote in our primary because I KNEW it wouldn't count. Tell me, would you take the time away from your job and family to go vote for something when you were told by the government that your vote wouldn't count? Particularly when your candidate of choice wasn't even ON the ballot? Get real.

[John B Sheffield]

So all these losers who are backers for Barack Obama, are these that are filling stadiums to listen to Barack Obama?

I know of no one who is envious of The Clinton's.

This strategy of attack on Obama reflects so badly on the Democratic Party itself. Seasoned Clinton's yes with lies to the American people and voters. Yes we had wild claims from Hillary of her Irish Peace Treaty success, now the latest is when she went to Bosnia, she had to run from the plane to avoid gun shots and bullets, Every broadcaster has searched for this incident, not one piece, does Hillary not realise if a First Lady had been shot at, it would have had worldwide media coverage. The Public are starting to see this.

When are Clinton supporters going to accept that she accepted the ruling over Florida and Michigan. You can't choose to change the rules just because they don't fit your own self interest!

In Democrat daily polling early this week before Barack Obama's speech, Hillary was 7 points ahead of Obama, now Barack is back in the lead. Hillary and her campaign team seem to feel if they throw enough lies some will stick! by the way when is she going to release her Tax Returns, so don't fool yourself that Hillary is whiter than white and can beat McCain she does not stand an earthly chance.

[STUGOK]

All said. The truth about Sen. Obama candidacy is that he is being finance by powerful loosers in the Democratic party. Those who are envious of the Clintons' I know this for a fact, if Sen. Obama wins the Democratic nomination, he will not win in November. It will ensure another Republican term and a lost for the Democratic party. The Republicans knows that very well but the Democratic elite out of envy for the Clintons' are so blind that they cannot see the writings on the wall. Sen. Obama and his weak surrogates, cannot withstand strong and disciplined Republican skillful attack machine. The Clinton's are seasoned, tested, can withstand the Republican attack machine and they know how to defeat them. Kerry and Gore did not withstand them and the Clinton's did twice.

[james42]

They should cut the delegates in half and for michigan it should be adjusted to give hilary the equivalent of her largest lead in a state where both contested not what she got. It's not perfect... it's in fact disgusting but it's the only solution that can appease the MI and FL HRC zealots who are determined to destroy the party. Obama still wins under that scenario, unless some other substantially damaging info comes out. Which to be fair should do him in regardless of his lead as it would her.

I will say that HRC has no chance of beating McCain. Her words on experience over vision will come back. Her flip on supporting the war and then being against will be unmoving to true advocates of peace and justice. Her unknown financial records will have to be revealed and if there is any hint of impropriety that will seal the election for McCain. As he can appeal to moderate democrats more than Hilary can appeal to moderate republicans.

[christopher100s]

This is asinine logic that one would expect from a high school debater. And not even a good one. Any rational adult understands that the MI and FL votes cannot count for anything. HRC herself said this before she knew she would need some magic votes to pull from a hat. You and the rest of the Clinton Clan are living on another planet.

[dimitri]

hello democrats.

i'm a floridian .i'm also an african american i've been voting democratic all my time and i'm sick and tired of all this bashing of Obama or Clinton.For the first time i'm leaning toward voting for a republican(o god save me)or stay home Everyone is talking about the rules. The republican legislature in Florida (senate i think 29 r 16 d, 82r 43 d house of representatives) voted to have the primary onJanuary 29.A LOT OF FLORIDIANS DEMOCRATS ARE REALLY MAD AT HOW OTHER DEMOCRATS FROM OTHER STATES ARE ANALYZING THIS MATTER SO GUESS WHO WILL BENEFIT IT IN NOVEMBER. The republican Governor down there is very popular not only with Republicans but independents and democrats. What i do not like about Obama supporters is that Obama is God or Nothing else. That somehow all the people that voted Clinton are lunatic and do not count. The truth and the matter is that these people feel very offended when you are bashing their candidates and i guess it is the same for Obama supporters when Clinton supporters do the same. It is a desperate appeal to you on the web to not let your eye of the big prize in November .No matter what you say both need each other and that's a fact. The Republicans are defining Obama right now (Wright story)and we are not doing nothing about it Remember John Kerry in 2004 and I do not think that Obama's speech on race will erase the doubts of a large section of the electorate when the general election comes. Clinton has its baggage too and we all know it. The democratic party needs to be a structured and Organized party with one message not a nomenclature of opinions from different groups .The Republicans are all lining up behind Mc cain and nobody seem to notice(even with its flaws mc cain is not going to be swift boated by conservatives because Republicans are very well structured and organized). That's the comparison i was trying to make earlierwith democrats I'm all for a revote in Fl and Michigan and whoever is leading the delegates count gets the nomination. I GUESS I WILL BE CALLED A NAIVE TWO things to unite the party dream ticket( CLINTON OBAMA vice versa) and nominate John Edwards as Attorney General. Thank you and God bless all democrats not sure if we still have a party no more.

[pearl elliott]

If Obama wants to unite this party it would be wise for him to say yes we need to redo this over, he doesnt want to because he will lose and he knows this and if it doesnt happen he will destory the party, i for one along with a whole bunch of others do NOT want him as our president,the only way he won is thro the causus, and i know for a fact what happened in Texas, his supporters would not let her supporters in to the cast their vote, won legal? no i dont think so

[Lompe Land]

Are you really a Professor of Political Science?

[CognitiveDissonance]

If Obama thinks refusing to let Florida and Michigan revote is going to play, he is very sadly mistaken. If this is the only way he ends up winning, his "win" will be seen as illegitimate by a large number of Democrats. This is as big a story as Rev. Wrong and his anti-American, anti-white hate speech. It is not going to play, and it just about guarantees that even if he manages to bamboozle the SD's who end up deciding this, he will not win the election in November. I shudder to think of the 24/7 wurlitzer playing the Wright tapes from August to November and a 49-state victory for McCain.

[pm317]

Yes, it is ridiculous for anybody to be calling her to quit. It is equally damaging to ignore those states. I thought the one overwhelming rule in a democracy is to count the votes. Obama can not win in the GE if he chooses to disenfranchise those states now -- I can't understand how he can go back there and ask for their votes -- "I did not care for your votes in the primary but vote for me now." He and his supporters are afraid they will lose the nomination if they agree to a re-vote or count the current vote. Superdelegates and the rest of the up coming states are watching. I hope they will do the right thing -- not cast a vote for him so he does not have to count them.

[Terry]

Florid's Republican Administration is the one that moved the date up and ignored the democrats when they beg them not to. So does that mean we don't get to vote because of the Republicans. Yes, Obama did run ads in Florida. Every time he says he didn't campaign in Florida I get angry. John McCain will be the President I am afraid.

[MarinJoe]

Everyone here seems to have forgotten that Sen Obama DID campaign in Florida immediately preceeding the primary there. He had purchased nation-wide airtime to run political ads that were broadcast in Florida.

[Jeremiah Spunk]

Mr. Epstein, your logic is highly flawed and ignorant.

The articles ignore the Florida and Michigan results because they don't count. Those states broke the rules and now must pay for it. Admittedly, they should have just cut the delegations in half, but it's too late for that. This is hardly absurd. What would be absurd is letting those results count. In Florida, Clinton was able to bank on her name being Clinton. Had there been actual campaigning there, things would have gone a lot differently. In Michigan, giving Obama the uncommitted votes would not even remotely be more than he deserves as clearly indicated by any number of states where he earned well more than 33% of the vote. You seem to ignore the fact that when voters came to the polls wanting to vote for Obama, Edwards, Richardson, or Biden, they couldn't and went for Hillary instead. If those four had been on the ballot, then she certainly would not have gotten 55%. In fact, she probably would only have gotten 30-40%. If Obama had been on the ballot, he might have even won it. Therefore, accepting the votes as they are now is, in fact, absurd.

Now it is you who are ignoring facts. You thing Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania will overturn Obama's lead in the popular vote. What about the other 10 or so contests. Obama will be running up some good leads in those that would neutralize a good portion of what she gained.

A revote would be great, but neither state seems able to get this through. How hard is it to set up a primary or caucus? The state parties can split the cost with the states. If they can't figure out a plan, the Democrats need to grow the backbone they have so often been faulted for lacking and not seat those delegates. Or if they do, bar them from voting.

Check the facts, my friend. You have no idea what you're talking about.

[John B Sheffield]

I thought Hillary got off to a good start with her campaign and I agree it was only when matters started to go wrong with one loss after another she choose to make it nasty, is that her decision or Penn and Wolfson? - it is going to damage Hillary long term.

The current situation is start to dangerously damage the Democratic Party and there is no defence for Hillary and her team to allow this to continue. Hillary is not going to close the gap, this was how this debate started and she should do what is right for The Party and for once not herself.

Who? if anyone is in charge in The Party to take control of this situation before it gets completely out of hand and gives an open opportunity to the Republicans if the Democrats split themselves in this very bitter and dirty race.

[Mike]

The fact that this conversation is even taking place is a sad testament to what the Democratic nomination process has become. Both Michigan and Florida knew very well the consequences of their decision to hold their primaries ahead of February 5th. All parties involved, including Clinton, Obama and the VOTERS OF FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN, knew that these delegates would not be seated at the convention. And now everyone involved in the state of Florida has determined that a re-vote just isn't not feasible. Yet somehow, as Barb and others now believe, this is Obama's fault? To them, I can only say, huh?

You want to talk about a candidate who will do anything to win? Consider that the controversy that has swelled surrounding this issue is entirely due to the fact that Hillary has only decided to make it an issue in the face of losing the nomination. She is ready and willing to cast blame at Obama, knowing that blame is entirely misplaced, in an effort to sway public opinion. In the process, she is alienating many Florida and Michigan voters from the Democratic party in the general election, perhaps ultimately at the cost of the presidency. Also consider that not only does she want to ignore the rules that everyone agreed to from the start, but in proposing a re-vote in Michigan, she wants to make up NEW RULES of her own -- by not allowing Republicans and Independents to participate. And still, people like Barb believe it is Obama who is willing to do anything to win? I'm sorry, but I just don't understand the logic. Probably because there isn't any being applied.

[William]

I think it is better to throw those results out, even though I grew up in Michigan. The current system, although it has its flaws, lets candidates be examined early on in a small number of generally, allowing personal experience to weigh more heavily than media buys.

You can argue that's a bad system (although I like it) but it's very hard to argue that you should let Michigan and Florida decide to throw out a system that the rest of the nation has agreed on.

Further, those existing Michigan and Florida votes shouldn't be counted alongside the rest. There was no campaigning, and many didn't vote because they thought it wouldn't count. Democracy isn't about popularity contests; it's about the choices of an informed, participating populace.

If people are going to be angry at anybody, they should be angry at the legislators in Michigan and Florida who knew the consequences and decided to hold outlaw early primaries anyhow. Yelling at the umpire for enforcing the agreed rules is ridiculous. Either follow the rules or change the rules, but don't demand special treatment while the game's still in progress.

[Tyson]

FL and MI moved their primary dates for their own reasons of trying to have a bigger impact on the election, which is a pretty selfish reason. The huge irony of it is that they would have played a huge role if they stayed where they were. And Obama never disenfranchised them, he is allowing the legislative process to proceed since the candidates saying something really has no effect, its up to those states democratic parties. He raises legitimate concerns when you look where the money to fund these comes from and changing them from open primaries to closed primaries is a huge bias against the base of Obama's supporters. Stop being fed what Clinton is pushing down people's throats and actually do some independent thinking. If you go back before super tuesday she said herself that those votes won't count since they broke the rules, and now she is flipping over to say they should out of pure self interest, which is creating non-existent reasons to further polarize the two candidates core bases in the democratic party.

[barb]

Obama Dignified? How is denying two states votes dignfied. Both states have tried to work for a resolution and his campaign has stonewalled and given no cooperation throughout. Because he has refused to allow the votes to count, we are going nowhere with this.

Dignified? Denying the voters of MI and Florida is about the most anti-democratic thing I have ever heard of. Deny them the vote in the primaries and you will not get a majority of them to vote for a Democrat in the general election. This is going to damage the Democratic party for years to come. Of course all Obama AND his supporters care about is the short term picture, WINNING.

Dignified? You can bet your sweet bippy that if Obama thought that he was going to lead other state by 20 points, he would be all for the revote, but because he isn't sure, of course he can't do the democratic thing.

Dignified? Denying the vote of members of the armed services. This is his uniting not dividing, new politics?

I renounce any support I would give Obama and I renounce the Dem party if they don't resolve this by counting the vote in Florida.

To paraphrase Obama's great friend Rev. Wright GD the Democratic Party and GD ANYONE who won't let the votes count.

[John B Sheffield]

The argument dopes not really stand as it accepted now that Michigan and Florida will not get a re-vote.

Would it not have been unacceptable for one candidate to demand a re-vote, when they had agreed to the rules. Is it to become the norm whenever you are not happy ask for rule changes.

As an extra footnote I thought it was most helpful that 10 Rich Democrats offered to pay for the Michigan re-vote(this being after Florida came to terms they would not have a re-vote) Hillary even pushed in an extra visit to Michigan to push this kind offer, what she did not tell the Michigan people/voters was the ten were all Clinton Supporters and 5 are listed on her website as Major Backers! - does seem not quite right to me?

So we are back to the articles which claim rightly? Hillary can't close the gap on Barack Obama with the national vote and delegate count. Then IF it should come to the Superdelegates would they completely overturn the mandate given? it would lose them all credibility as a Party, the same Party that Hillary continues to seriously damage with her stance and strategy of making the campaign personal with lies, smears and attacks rather than policy.

What I do admire is how Barack Obama has continued to be totally dignified throughout all this.