By Brigitte L. Nacos
As a result of the so-called troop surge, there are now
about 170,000 American soldiers in Iraq. Yet, as Thomas
E. Ricks reports in today’s Washington Post, a major offensive launched
recently “has renewed concerns about whether even the bigger U.S.troop
presence there is large enough.” If these American forces plus the allegedly better
trained new Iraqi Army and police forces may not be strong enough to prevail,
one wonders how strong the enemy is—in particular al-Qaeda in Iraq that the Bush administration and the Blair government consider the major foe in the Iraqi leg of the global war on terrorism. According to the Post,
Lt. General Raymond T. Odierno, the second in command of American troops in Iraq, said the other day that senior al-Qaeda in Iraq leaders apparently fled
the area in and around the city of Baqubah as American soldiers launched their new offensive named Arrowhead Ripper. The
general said furthermore, “We believe 80 percent of the upper-level leaders
fled, but we'll find them. Eighty percent of the lower level-leaders are still
here." This is a stunning statement because it indicates that U.S. military leaders have a very good idea
about the number of al-Qaeda terrorists. Otherwise, there is no way to figure out that most top-leaders fled and
most secondary leaders stayed. Indeed, with respect to the high ranking al-Qaeda
leaders, Odierno was even more specific. According to the
New York Times he said, “I guarantee you, we’re going to track down those leaders.
“And we’re in the process of doing that. We know who they are, and we’re coming
after them, and we’re going to work that extremely hard.” How strong can this
major enemy in Iraq be, if
the U.S. military knows the precise number and the names of top leaders in particular
localities? An Associated
Press report about the killing of seven more U.S.troops by roadside bombs today
mentions the capture of two senior al-Qaida members in Diyala province. Given
the frequent announcements of al-Qaeda leaders captured or killed somewhere in Iraq, there are either mostly leaders in Iraq’s
al-Qaeda—or there are so many terrorists in al-Qaeda and similar groups that
there is a need for many leadership positions.
There is no doubt that the invasion and post-invasion phases brought al-Qaeda recruits from a host of countries into Iraq and recruited Iraqis into the organization and like-minded groups. But the number of these terrorists pales in comparison to home-grown insurgents with no organizational and ideological ties to al-Qaeda. The insurgents resort to deadly terrorist methods against Iraqi civilians and security forces as well as against members of coalition forces--and, yes, they are terrorists. But these indigenous terrorists have a domestic agenda and fight in Iraq’s civil war and/or against the foreign occupiers. They are not part of the global terrorist scheme a la Osama bin Laden. And contrary to what Iraq hawks in Washington claim, these insurgents would not take their terrorist attacks to the United States under any circumstances.
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